Outflow of the Russian capital grew

10.04.2012 By a preliminary estimate of Bank of Russia in the 1st quarter 2012 pure outflow of the private capital from the Russian Federation grew in 1,8 times and made 35,1 bln. dollars. The statement a Department for External and Public Relations of the Central bank of the Russian Federation declared about it.

The bank of Russia noted that in 2011 the outflow of the capital made 80,5 billion rubles. The proficit of trading balance of the Russian Federation in the 1st quarter 2012 grew in comparison with the similar period of 2011 (48,2 bln. dollars) by 27,4 % - to 61,4 bln. dollars. The positive balance of the account of the current operations of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in the 1st quarter 2012 grew in comparison with the similar period of 2011 by 37,3 % - to 42,3 bln. dollars from 30,8 bln. dollars.

Let's note that analysts of "Alfa Bank" consider that in March the outflow of the capital will be 12,5 billion dollars.

Expert’s opinion

«Let’s me to pay your attention to key data: the positive balance of the account of the current operations of payments balance of the Russian Federation in the 1st quarter 2012 was 42,3 billion dollars, and pure outflow of the capital was only 35,1 billion dollars!

It means that 7,2 billion dollars remained in the country.

Also it means that the country in the first quarter 2012 became richer on seven billions, two hundred million dollars, RICHER!!! (this situation is only for one quarter, and such state of affairs in the Russian Federation is not for the first time and I doubt that it will come to an end in the first quarter 2012!)

However the figures of the Central Bank can’t argue with simple papers. And these pieces of paper – checks, which each of us receives from time to time in shops, bars, restaurants and the other institutions equipped with the corresponding cash registers…

Personally I observe the same picture from year to year, from a quarter to a quarter.

If earlier, having come to nearby restaurant, together with my six partners and having good dinner with them, I received the check for 3000 rubles, now having come to the same restaurant and eating together with my wife the same food that we usually order: I receive the check for 6000 rubles.

The seat of restaurant, menu, appetite – everything remained invariable. But the sum of the check increased.

I, being an economist, understand that such phenomenon is called inflation.

This word has a lot of definitions and one of them is depreciation of money. It means that for the same sum of money yesterday I bought one quantity of goods, works, services, and after depreciation of money, for the same sum, I can buy smaller quantity of the goods, works, services.

One of the main reasons for inflation is the emergence in a turn of a large quantity of bank notes which were not before.

Coming back to Central Bank figures, I understand that our country sold a large quantity of goods, raw materials, production, for which foreign buyers paid off with the Russian Federation wholly! And this money is the main source of inflation!!!

This money doesn't accustom in any way in the territory of the country. We don't see neither a mass construction of roads, nor updating key assets, neither scientific breaks, nor working out of the high technology projects. And if they and remained in a turn, depreciation of salaries, pensions and other maintenances of citizens would occur even more promptly!

The fact that the split between import of means and export aspires to a minimum, means that statesmen leave that minimum of money which is necessary for normal existence in the country, and all rest dump in abroad to lead to the situation when in other countries inflation gallops and the currency depreciates!

On March, 20th, 2012 the head of Federal Agency of the state statistics Alexander Surinov gave interview to "the Russian newspaper» where he confirmed that «…in Russia inflation at last became low in comparison with that was earlier …».

Not least this situation is the consequence of a state policy in the sphere of finance according to which money which are entered from abroad, "are sanified" and taken out and/or frozen at once.

In foreseeable prospect there are no projects in which the state will invest obtained by raw economy.

Therefore the forecast is simple and logical: all means which were received by the Russian Federation from trade in raw materials, will be deduced. It is a state policy of rehabilitation of superfluous monetary weight.

All business people will do the business and benefit to the Russian. The capital which is deduced from the country, should be reliably kept!

We know how to help business to do everything legally and with the smallest losses of money.

We wait results of the 2nd quarter 2012.»

On the basis: www.cbr.ru

Lomakin Yaroslav ( managing partner of Honest & Bright )