Is unemployment rising – is inflation falling?

29.11.2023 The US labor market is weakening. The government reported that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the last week was 231,000, up 13,000 from the previous week and the highest in almost three months.

This data was positively received by investors. After the release of the initial circulation data, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by 10 basis points to 4.41%, the lowest level since mid-September.

As the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits exceeded market expectations, investors are seeing new signs of a potential weakening of the economy. This, in turn, increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep the base interest rate at the same level, rather than raise it.

At the same time, investors are reconsidering their expectations for inflation. The latest inflation data, combined with weak retail sales and employment data, suggest that a controlled weakening of the economy has led to a halt in inflation growth.

Link to source: https://www2.deloitte.com/xe/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

https://tradingeconomics.com/